Fermi #75 · Question 2 of 3

How many wild elephants lived in Africa at the last full continent-wide count, published in 2016?

Fermi Answers Today
Answer

415,000 elephants

Napkin math

Africa has about 50 countries. Most countries have wild elephants. Estimate 35 countries with elephants. A few countries have very large herds. Many countries have very few elephants. Use an average of 10,000 elephants per country.

Napkin math
Countries with elephants~35
Elephants per country× 10,000
35 × 10,000≈ 350,000

The published breakdown

Published breakdown
IUCN African Elephant Status Report 2016, surveyed populations (data to end of 2015)≈ 415,000 (± about 20,000)
Net loss since 2007, mostly to poaching≈ 110,000
≈ result415,000 elephants

Source

IUCN SSC African Elephant Specialist Group, African Elephant Status Report 2016

The other questions

Fermi's answer to this one is 415,000 elephants.

It was question 2 of 3 in Fermi #75, played on Friday, October 9, 2026. The napkin route chains a few rough guesses together and multiplies them out (first step: Countries with elephants, ~35).

What each guess would have scored

Fermi never marks a guess right or wrong. It divides the larger number by the smaller, so the score says how many times off you were. Lower is better.

Score windows

ScoreGuesses that earn it
1× (Spot On)Exactly 415,000 elephants
1.5× or better277,000 to 622,000 elephants
2× or better208,000 to 830,000 elephants
3× or better139,000 to 1.24 million elephants
10× or better41,500 to 4.15 million elephants

High and low misses count the same. Guessing half the answer scores 2×, just like guessing double.

How the napkin math would have scored

Fermi's rough working for this question ends at ≈ 350,000. Typed in as a guess, that comes back Too Low and scores 1.19×, landing about 16% under the real number.

The other questions in Fermi #75 were How many days does a container ship take to sail from Shanghai to Rotterdam through the Suez Canal? (30 days) and How many Oreo cookies are sold around the world each day? (164,000,000 Oreos). All three answers are on the Fermi #75 answers page.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fermi answer to "How many wild elephants lived in Africa at the last full continent-wide count, published in 2016?"

415,000 elephants. It was question 2 of Fermi #75, Friday, October 9, 2026.

What guess scores 2× on this Fermi question?

Anything from 208,000 to 830,000 elephants. For 10× or better, anything from 41,500 to 4.15 million elephants works.

How can you estimate this without looking it up?

Africa has about 50 countries. Most countries have wild elephants. Estimate 35 countries with elephants. A few countries have very large herds. Many countries have very few elephants. Use an average of 10,000 elephants per country. That route ends at ≈ 350,000.

Where does this Fermi answer come from?

IUCN SSC African Elephant Specialist Group, African Elephant Status Report 2016.

How does Fermi scoring work?

Each guess turns into a multiple: the larger of your guess and the answer, divided by the smaller. Exact is 1×, off by double or by half is 2×, and ten times off is 10×. The three multiples are then combined with a geometric average (multiply them, take the cube root) to give the day score. Lower is better.

Where can I play Fermi?

In any web browser at fermi.gg. It's free, and you can play without an account. Signing in adds the leaderboard, the stats page and your history on every device.